Joi Ito, in a must-read rant about microcontent trends says "Microsoft will continue to dominate the desktop, but it will become less relevant as consumer electronics companies embrace open standards and use Internet web services and applications to make consumer electronics devices rich with content."

Um, Joi, did you have some bad sushi before you wrote this?

Let me explain why you're wrong.

First of all, Microsoft is investing a LOT in "non PC devices." So, even if you're right that the desktop will become less important (hint: you're not), I don't think you can count Microsoft out, or say it'll become less relevant.

Second of all, TONS of people are getting camera phones. What's the first thing they do? Post them on a web site, right? OK. So far, camera phones + server means that the desktop is outta the picture, right? But, where do people view those camera phone pictures? I'll tell you where I look at Chris Pirillo's moblog, for instance: on my Tablet PC.

So, how again did the new device that came along decrease the relevance of the desktop?

Now, I predict Joi's answer will be that Japanese kids don't use PCs and they just use cell phones for everything. Well, sorry. Viewing a photo off of one of those new Nikon multi-mega-pixel pro cameras on a small cell phone screen just isn't my idea of fun. And trying to type ASCII characters into a weblog on a cell phone's keypad ain't my idea of fun either (and, yes, I've played with the latest in phones -- a co-worker just brought a bunch back from Tokyo). The fact that some kid somewhere is doing that, doesn't prove a thing.

But, I've been corrupted. I can predict the future a bit since I've seen a ton of secret stuff inside Microsoft. I certainly don't think the desktop becomes less relevant. In fact, to a whole raft of users, the desktop (or, the Tablet top, if you will) will be more important in 2005, not less.